Same Companies, Different Era: What If Omada and Hinge IPO’d in 2020?

What Might Have Been

Been a strong comeback year for Digital Health thus far in spring 2025 as two digital health pioneers Omada Health and Hinge Health were able to get liquidity in the form of a successful IPO (still early but so far so good).

• Omada Health priced its IPO at $19 per share on Friday, raising $150 million at a $1.2 billion valuation as they have been awaiting the equity market to shift in their favor. Shares jumped 21% on debut, signaling investor demand for their outcome-driven chronic-care platforms.

• Hinge Health, once valued at $6.2 billion privately, priced at $32 per share in late May, raising $437 million at a $2.6 billion valuation. Despite the down-round, the stock rose 17% on day one, fueled by profitability and strong Q1 results.

These were solid wins but required rigorous proof of margins, retention and payer ROI which has actually made them better/more investable businesses. The last 3 years have been tough on Digital Health assets and long gone are the overly optimistic days of early-2020. I always find curiosity getting the better of me, so I have to think what might have happened if they’d gone public in the peak zero-rate era?

2025: Volatility is the new Kardashian family

Start of 2025
Investors were optimistic. A new administration was expected to:

• Reduce regulation

• Cut rates

• Shrink budget deficits

• Lower Treasury yields

That optimism fueled major buy-side confidence headed into 2025:

• Goldman Sachs projected a 13% S&P gain

• Bank of America flagged strong earnings growth

• Citi, Wells Fargo, and others anticipated a revival in the H2 IPO market

Tariff Shock in March
As commonly happens in the equity market, optimism turned to fear rather quickly with the announcement of heavy tariffs on our trading partners.

• March: Nasdaq slumped 10.5% and S&P dropped 4.6% – worst quarter since 2022

• March 3: Announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China triggered ~2.6% drop in Nasdaq

• March 10 – 11: Further declines put Nasdaq in bear market territory

Rapid Rebound in April
Then came the policy pivot as the bond market rolled over April 8th rising almost 40 basis points on the 10 year treasury which signaled weakness in the appetite of the world to purchase the United States high level of debt. What would follow would begin a run on equities making a very volatile first half of 2025.

• April 9: Tariff pause announcement triggered Nasdaq’s second-largest one-day gain of +12.16%

• S&P jumped +9.5% the largest single-day rally since 2008

• By June, Nasdaq had recovered ~32% from the April lows, and S&P rose ~23%

This volatility crystallizes 2025’s macro landscape: hopeful start → trade shock → sharp rebound → IPO-window reopens creating just enough runway for Omada and Hinge to get an open window.

What If They IPO’d in 2020?

As I said in the intro, my curiosity tends to get the better of me so I began to imagine these same companies floating at the peak of 2020’s zero-interest-rate era, buoyed by pandemic tailwinds, SPAC hype, and liquidity-driven valuations. What might this have looked like and would these have been long-term durable businesses or merely another Digital Health flash in the pan.

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Sponsored by Dave Breininger at Talent Wave
Talent Wave is transforming how healthcare organizations discover and retain top-tier talent. Led by industry specialist David Breininger, Talent Wave connects exceptional individuals with visionary healthcare companies through a personalized, innovative approach. . Learn more at www.talentwaveassociates.com. Contact David at (567) 304-3102 or DBreininger@talentwaveassociates.com

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The Macro Market That Made Unicorns

It wasn’t just zero rates, the U.S. money supply surged over 30% between March 2020 and December 2021, adding more than $5 trillion to the system. By 2025, the Fed's quantitative tightening has kept M2 flat, and risk appetite has never fully recovered to the levels we saw at the peak.

Meanwhile, the Fed Funds Rate rose by over 500 basis points from its COVID-era lows to where it sits today. Estimates say that every 100 bps increase effectively shaved 15–30% off IPO valuations for long-duration, growth-centric companies. Digital health firms were hit hardest, as profitability expectations accelerated.

IPOs like Hinge and Omada went public not with the wind at their backs but against the current. That they succeeded at all says more about their resilience than the market’s generosity.

Valuations Then vs. Now — The Impact of Rates

Using the estimates, every 100 bps rise in the Fed Funds rate reduced digital health IPO valuations by ~15–30%. Given that rough math, the above estimates of a 2020 hypothetical IPO for Hinge puts the projection at $10B in 2020 but instead debuted at $2.6B in 2025, despite stronger revenue and earnings.

What Investors Demanded Then vs. Now